Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 03 2023 07:33:58 ACUS03 KWNS 030733 SWODY3 SPC AC 030732 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX...AND FROM EASTERN AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS... ....SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough is expected to persist over the West on Friday, with another trough expected to move eastward off of the Eastern Seaboard. Between these two troughs, a mid/upper-level ridge will begin building from the MS Valley into the Midwest. A surface low initially over the southern Plains may weaken into a trough as renewed cyclogenesis occurs across the central High Plains, in response to the western trough. A dryline is forecast to become well defined by afternoon from the Edwards Plateau in TX into southeast OK. An outflow-reinforced surface boundary may begin moving northward as a warm front across parts of the lower MS Valley. ....Texas into the lower MS Valley... Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop Friday afternoon east of the dryline across TX, and south of a likely outflow-reinforced boundary across parts of the lower MS Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is expected within the northwesterly flow regime across the lower MS Valley, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding convective evolution during the day/evening. A remnant thunderstorm cluster may pose a threat of isolated severe hail/wind across AR, with redevelopment possible later in the afternoon/evening along the remnant boundary. Any redevelopment could evolve into an organized cluster and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of large hail and damaging gusts. A Marginal Risk has been added for this conditional threat. Across TX, isolated development appears possible along the dryline, possibly aided by embedded vorticity maxima within the broader southwest flow aloft. Hail (possibly very large) would be the primary threat if a supercell or two can be sustained. A Marginal Risk has been added for this conditional risk as well. Between the two Marginal Risks, mid/upper-level ridging may tend to suppress convection, so no probabilities have been included in that area for now. ....Central Plains... Moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms across parts of the central Plains again on Friday. Hail and locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but confidence in a severe threat is too low at this time to include probabilities. ...Dean.. 05/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .