Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 03 2023 06:02:27 ACUS02 KWNS 030602 SWODY2 SPC AC 030600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low over southern CA is forecast to eject northeastward toward the Great Basin on Thursday as a negatively tilted trough. Ahead of this feature, a midlevel shortwave trough of subtropical origin and an attendant speed maximum are forecast to move from far west TX toward the southern Great Plains through the day. A surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across southeast CO, as a dryline becomes better defined during the afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK into northwest TX and the Edwards Plateau. ....Southern/central Plains... Widespread mid/high cloudiness will likely spread across much of the central/southern Plains in association with the subtropical shortwave trough, but some filtered heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer will result in moderate destabilization east of the dryline across parts of TX/OK, and potentially as far north as southern/central KS. Meanwhile, moderate mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 40-50 kt across parts of TX/OK, with somewhat weaker deep-layer flow/shear expected farther north into the central Plains. These factors will result in a conditional risk of organized convection along/east of the dryline. While most guidance shows at least widely scattered storm development across parts of OK/TX during the afternoon, convective evolution remains quite uncertain across the warm sector. Some HREF members initiate elevated convection during the early/mid afternoon from northwest TX into OK, which is plausible given notable moistening above the surface in the presence of modestly favorable midlevel lapse rates. Any elevated convection could still pose a hail/wind threat, but may disrupt the potential for supercell development later in the diurnal cycle. If supercells can initiate along the dryline during the late afternoon, they would pose a hail and isolated severe wind threat. A strengthening low-level jet will also support increasing low-level shear/SRH across OK by early evening, which would support the threat of a couple tornadoes, if discrete or clustered supercells can be maintained. Farther south, at least isolated supercell development will be possible from northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will support the conditional risk of very large hail with any supercells in this area, along with the risk of isolated severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more clusters to move into parts of east-central/northeast TX Thursday night, with isolated hail/wind potential, though this scenario remains uncertain with the primary low-level jet focused farther north. ....Central Plains... Isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of KS/eastern CO, and also farther north into parts of NE along a weak cold front. While deep-layer shear will be relatively modest in these areas, moderate buoyancy could support some threat of hail and strong wind gusts. As of now, the highest confidence in an isolated severe threat is across central/western KS, though some threat cannot be entirely ruled out into northeast CO, and also into parts of NE. ....Ozark Plateau... Strong storms could spread into parts of AR and southwest MO late Thursday night, supported by an increasing low-level jet. Elevated buoyancy will be sufficient to support strong updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or strong wind gusts, though the potential for a more organized threat overnight remains uncertain. ...Dean.. 05/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .