Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 03 2023 04:53:57 ACUS01 KWNS 030453 SWODY1 SPC AC 030452 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may form near and to the east of the southern Rockies this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind across adjacent portions of the southern Great Plains into early this evening. ....Synopsis... Split flow will be maintained across North America, with the most prominent embedded blocking (initially centered near Newfoundland and Labrador) reforming to the west-northwest, across the higher latitudes of interior Canada in the coming days. Today through tonight, models suggest that this evolution will include a westward shift of an initial elongated mid-level high across northern Quebec, while another high forms across the Canadian Prairies. In lower latitudes, broad mid-level troughing will persist across much of the U.S. to the east of the Mississippi Valley, but the center of a weakening embedded low is forecast to dig from the upper Ohio Valley across and offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late tonight. Upstream, a mid-level cut-off low may remain offshore of the California coast much of today into tonight, redeveloping southward and southeastward, before turning eastward toward the coast (between San Francisco Bay and the Los Angeles Basin), in response to a short wave impulse pivoting around its southern through southeastern periphery. In response to these developments, little appreciable change is expected to the generally cool and/or dry and stable conditions now present across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. However, lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are likely to remain steep across much of the northern Intermountain West into the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, while modest low-level moisture is maintained on southeasterly low-level flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Rockies. ....Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... Beneath persistent mid/upper ridging, deep-layer mean flow and shear will generally remain modest to weak through this period. However, daytime heating and mixing, with sufficient moisture to contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg in the presence of at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, appears likely to once again support scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Storms may mostly initiate in response to orographic forcing, from the mountains of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico into to the Raton Mesa vicinity, before gradually propagating away from the higher terrain. While gradually growing upscale into consolidating clusters, some of this activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind before diminishing this evening. ...Kerr/Moore.. 05/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .