Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 03 2023 00:46:26 ACUS01 KWNS 030046 SWODY1 SPC AC 030044 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong storms may persist across parts of western Texas into mid to late evening, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. A cluster of storms may also produce a few strong to severe gusts while spreading from the northern Idaho Bitterroots into lower elevations of northeastern Washington this evening. ....01Z Update... ....West Texas... Aided by forcing for ascent, associated with a weak short wave impulse progressing through larger-scale modest to weak anticyclonic flow, convection has tended to consolidate along a diffuse dryline near the New Mexico/Texas border. Low-level lapse rates remain quite steep ahead of the evolving line, from west of Amarillo and Lubbock through the Texas South Plains, where deep boundary-layer mixing has maintained surface dew points in the relatively modest lower/mid 50s F. This environment probably will contribute to at least some continuing risk for locally strong surface gusts into the 02-04Z time frame. Despite the generally weak flow, modest deep-layer shear appears focused along a corridor roughly west of the Lubbock vicinity eastward into portions of the Texas Big Country, coincident with a developing baroclinic zone and corridor of deeper boundary-layer moistening. It is possible that this could provide a focus for somewhat better organized convective development into late evening/overnight. However, given the environment, including a gradually cooling boundary-layer, peak gusts associated with this activity may mostly remain below severe criteria. ....Interior Northwest... Thunderstorms have increased and begun to consolidate across the Bitterroot Mountains, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level perturbation pivoting around the northeastern periphery of the broad, deep cut-off low now centered west of San Francisco Bay. Beneath 20-30 kt east-southeasterly flow around 500 mb, modest north-northeasterly inflow of air characterized by at least weak CAPE probably will maintain west-northwestward propagation of storms off the higher terrain into lower elevations of northeastern Washington this evening. Given the warm and deeply mixed boundary-layer along this corridor, this convection will pose a risk for strong to occasionally severe gusts until it weakens later this evening. ...Kerr/Moore.. 05/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .