Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0669
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 03 2023 00:31:57

ACUS11 KWNS 030031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030031=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030031Z - 030300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue for a
couple more hours across parts of west Texas. The threat should be
too marginal for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Lubbock shows a
cluster of strong thunderstorms just to the east of Hobbs, New
Mexico. Other more isolated storms are located in the vicinity of
Midland/Odessa. The storms are located near an axis of maximized
low-level moisture, where surface dewpoints are generally from 45 to
55 F. Although, some low-level convergence is present on mesoscale
analysis, large-scale ascent is weak across most of west Texas in
the wake of am exiting shortwave trough. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at
Lubbock and Midland have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots with about 20
knots of mid-level flow. This will support marginally severe
multicells, but any development over the next couple of hours is
expected to remain unorganized. Hail and strong wind gusts will be
the primary threats.

...Broyles/Hart.. 05/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4W7emo7YytPRSZBZKKxv7Vd4T0HULnLFQM9X8hbRHG0LsZOxpLapccFILYdZGyuzMNXuWr1fn=
AYdSXiNl50_wcC2CO4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32800316 33350310 34090300 34550262 34600192 34470150
            34040125 32980101 32300101 31970120 31750176 31640261
            31940311 32800316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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