Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 02 2023 19:27:20

FOUS30 KWBC 021927
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Tue May 02 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue May 02 2023 - 12Z Wed May 03 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

....Southern High Plains...

Convection is firing up along a frontal boundary across West Texas
and eastern New Mexico this morning and is expected to lift north
and east through the afternoon and evening hours. Return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico has brought PW values up to 1/1.25 inches to
the Southern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, which is
approximately an anomalously of +1.5 sigma (especially across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles). Several of the hi-res guidance depict
isolated cells that pulse up to 1.5 inches/hour as they cross the
Texas panhandle. 3-FFG over much of this region ranges 2-5 inches
and the nature of these storms look to remain fairly progressive;
which will be a limiting factor on the potential for excessive
rainfall and isolated areas of flash flooding. There is a non-zero
potential for some areas to see flash ponding or flooding but the
exact location is uncertain due to the "popcorn" nature of
convection expected.




Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed May 03 2023 - 12Z Thu May 04 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8cnHfRNvBBPN3D0O8mJ51AtY9kVNSw6Kxkpe1wx1OXHz=
OHMZjxqP5hqlp4fnSEv77FlEBeo-POpRKOGrLTiWAka8iv4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8cnHfRNvBBPN3D0O8mJ51AtY9kVNSw6Kxkpe1wx1OXHz=
OHMZjxqP5hqlp4fnSEv77FlEBeo-POpRKOGrLTiWFnCPRgE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8cnHfRNvBBPN3D0O8mJ51AtY9kVNSw6Kxkpe1wx1OXHz=
OHMZjxqP5hqlp4fnSEv77FlEBeo-POpRKOGrLTiWtUSOsZc$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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