Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 02 2023 16:28:55 ACUS01 KWNS 021628 SWODY1 SPC AC 021627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ....Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. ...Thompson/Squitieri.. 05/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .