Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 02 2023 08:38:22

ACUS48 KWNS 020838
SWOD48
SPC AC 020836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The remnant of a persistent mid/upper-level low is forecast to move
toward the northern Rockies on Friday, but a longwave trough is
expected to remain in place over much of the western CONUS through
this weekend, and potentially into at least the first part of next
week. The mean trough position is generally forecast to gradually
shift eastward with time, but guidance varies considerably regarding
the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow/shear will impinge on a
reservoir of moderate to potentially strong buoyancy across parts of
the Great Plains into the MS Valley. This results in low
predictability regarding the severe thunderstorm threat on any
particular day, but an increasingly active pattern appears possible
during the extended range.

On D4/Friday, moderate to strong instability may develop along/south
of a weak surface boundary across central/east TX. While deep-layer
flow/shear is expected to remain marginal at best, modestly
organized storms capable of large hail will be possible. Some severe
threat could also evolve within a northwesterly flow regime from AR
into the lower MS Valley, depending in part on the evolution of
potential MCS development late during the D3/Thursday period.

For D5/Saturday and beyond, periodic episodes of strong to
potentially severe storms will be possible across the
central/southern Plains and potentially into the Midwest and
lower/mid MS Valley. The magnitude and coverage any such severe
episodes will depend on the track and intensity of shortwaves
emanating out of the longwave trough across the West, which remain
quite uncertain at this time.

...Dean.. 05/02/2023

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