Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 02 2023 05:36:20 ACUS02 KWNS 020536 SWODY2 SPC AC 020534 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Wednesday, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across the central and southern High Plains and also across parts of the Northwest. ....Synopsis... The deep upper-level trough over the East is expected to gradually move eastward through the day on Wednesday, while the mid/upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Coast will start to move eastward, potentially moving into southern CA by Thursday morning. A surface ridge initially over the central CONUS is forecast to shift eastward, which will allow for increasing southerly low-level flow and some moisture transport into parts of the southern/central Plains. ....Central/southern High Plains... Weak to moderate buoyancy will again develop over the southern High Plains on Wednesday, with some northward expansion of favorable destabilization into the central High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across the southern High Plains, and a few strong storms are possible, though generally weak deep-layer shear and the presence of a mid/upper-level ridge may tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Stronger midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will move into west TX Tuesday night in advance of a subtropical shortwave trough, but it still appears that this will arrive too late to aid in the organization of primarily diurnal convection. Farther north into the central High Plains, somewhat less influence of mid/upper-level ridging is expected, and west-northwesterly midlevel flow may result in slightly stronger deep-layer shear compared to areas farther south. However, some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of moisture return and destabilization with northward extent. If sufficient destabilization can occur into western KS, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ....OR/WA... Modest heating/destabilization will again support thunderstorm development across parts of the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Guidance still suggests that a midlevel shortwave trough embedded within the broader cyclonic flow may be favorably timed for storm development during the late afternoon/evening across western/northern OR into southern WA, and a few strong storms capable of at least small hail and gusty winds will be possible. ...Dean.. 05/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .