Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 02 2023 00:43:19

ACUS01 KWNS 020043
SWODY1
SPC AC 020041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO...NORTHERN NEVADA...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may still impact portions of the
interior Northwest into this evening, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather.

....01Z Update...

....Interior Northwest...
The leading edge of the cooler surface air has advanced into/across
the Burns/Rome OR and Winnemucca NV vicinities, while generally
remaining stalled to the north, east of the Blue Mountains into the
mountains of north central Idaho and northwestern Montana.
Destabilization and mid/upper forcing for ascent along this corridor
appear to be contributing an ongoing increase in thunderstorm
development.

Convection capable of posing a risk for severe weather, primarily in
the form of strong wind gusts, stills seems likely to remain focused
 closer to the surface low migrating northwestward into eastern
Oregon.  Near and just ahead of this feature, the boundary-layer has
become deeply mixed with sufficient moisture to contribute to weak
mixed-layer CAPE, beneath 40-70+ kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer,
associated with a jet streak pivoting around a digging low near the
northern into central California coast.

...Kerr.. 05/02/2023

$$

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