Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 01 2023 07:24:44 ACUS03 KWNS 010724 SWODY3 SPC AC 010723 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... The persistent amplified pattern will again prevail across the CONUS on Wednesday. The deep upper-level trough over the East is expected to gradually move eastward through the day, while the mid/upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Coast may start to take on a more easterly component of motion late in the period, potentially approaching southern CA by Thursday morning. A surface ridge initially over the central CONUS is forecast to gradually shift eastward, which will allow for increasing southerly low-level flow and some moisture transport into parts of the central Plains. ....Central/southern High Plains... Weak to moderate buoyancy will again develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Wednesday afternoon, and likely spread farther north (compared to D2/Tuesday) into parts of the central High Plains. As on D2/Tuesday, wind profiles along the instability axis will be favorably veered, but weak deep-layer flow will limit the magnitude of bulk shear and SRH across the region. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon and evening within an uncapped environment, though mid/upper-level ridging may limit storm coverage to some extent, especially across the southern High Plains. The stronger storms will be capable of small hail and strong gusts, but the severe potential appears too limited for probabilities at this time. A stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough is expected to emerge from the subtropical Pacific and move over the southern Rockies on Wednesday night, but this will likely be too late to influence any severe potential during the D3/Wednesday period. ....Interior Northwest... Modest heating/destabilization will again support thunderstorm development across parts of the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Guidance currently suggests that a midlevel shortwave trough embedded within the broader cyclonic flow may be favorably timed for storm development during the late afternoon/evening across northern OR into southern WA, and a few strong storms capable of at least small hail and gusty winds will be possible in this region. ...Dean.. 05/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .