Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 01 2023 07:20:52

FOUS30 KWBC 010720
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 AM EDT Mon May 01 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon May 01 2023 - 12Z Tue May 02 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS MORNING
FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TO DOWNEAST MAINE...

....Maine...
The Marginal Risk area is essentially an extension from the
previous Day 1 outlook, with the expectation that the heaviest
rainfall rates associated with the mature Warm Conveyor Belt will
linger over the outlook area in the first few hours of the Day 1
period (1500-1600 UTC). This as the plume of highest PW (~1.1"
inland to near 1.25" along the coast), robust/highly anomalous
integrated water vapor transport (IVT values of 750-800 kg/m/s),
and strongest southeasterly 850 mb inflow (50-65kt) traverses N-NE
across the area. At the same time, there will be some (albeit
minimal) elevated instability present -- on the order of 100-250
J/Kg. As such, the latest HREF probabilities along with hourly QPF
per the 00Z CAMs support maximum hourly rainfall rates between
0.50-1.00" this morning, which given heavy rainfall prior to the
start of the Day 1 period (1200 UTC), and resultant lowering
FFG/rapidly increasing 10-40 cm depth soil moisture percentiles,
may allow for localized runoff issues through mid-late morning.

Anticipate the excessive rainfall threat across Central to
Downeast Maine to expire by the next regularly-scheduled Day 1 ERO
update (1600 UTC/noon EDT).

Hurley



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue May 02 2023 - 12Z Wed May 03 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69HpiRUrqffCFuSkSJg9e8N5aRKXWOMPLcvMYFqQpTjy=
ZcLD5xFyTztj8WG4JK8o2YuD2JPqrl2w_uu-7AU8JiBdweU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69HpiRUrqffCFuSkSJg9e8N5aRKXWOMPLcvMYFqQpTjy=
ZcLD5xFyTztj8WG4JK8o2YuD2JPqrl2w_uu-7AU8h82N7yY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69HpiRUrqffCFuSkSJg9e8N5aRKXWOMPLcvMYFqQpTjy=
ZcLD5xFyTztj8WG4JK8o2YuD2JPqrl2w_uu-7AU8hCpbTvg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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