Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 01 2023 05:57:41 ACUS02 KWNS 010557 SWODY2 SPC AC 010556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat generally appears low on Tuesday, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ....Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern in expected on Tuesday. A deep longwave upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS and embedded deep-layer cyclone near the upper Great Lakes are forecast to shift only gradually eastward through the day. Meanwhile, a mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to continue drifting southward near the Pacific Coast. Dry and stable conditions will continue to limit thunderstorm chances for most areas across the central/eastern CONUS, though some thunderstorm potential will begin returning to parts of the southern High Plains. ....Southern High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow will result in modest moistening and destabilization on Tuesday across parts of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to move northeastward through the day. Ascent attendant to this shortwave trough, combined with heating/mixing along the western periphery of the returning moisture, will result in widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the evening. While wind profiles will be favorably veered, with low-level southeasterly flow beneath mid/upper-level southwesterlies, it still appears that weak tropospheric wind speeds will limit bulk shear and SRH across the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest buoyancy will support some hail with the strongest storms, but severe hail potential may be hampered by weak deep-layer shear, in the absence of stronger buoyancy. Strong outflow gusts will also be possible, especially where convection develops or moves into a region where stronger diurnal heating occurs. If either instability or deep-layer flow/shear ends up being somewhat stronger than currently anticipated, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ....Interior Northwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the interior Northwest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in association with the mid/upper-level low near the Pacific Coast and vorticity maxima embedded within the cyclonic flow. Modest heating/destabilization and favorable deep-layer shear will support some potential for small hail and gusty winds with the strongest storms, especially across parts of OR and also northern ID into western MT, but the severe threat appears too isolated and limited in magnitude for probabilities at this time. ...Dean.. 05/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .