Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 01 2023 04:57:51

AWUS01 KWNH 010457
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-011100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 AM EDT Mon May 01 2023

Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire...South-Central Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010500Z - 011100Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 0.5-0.7"/hr look to continue
through the early morning hours, resulting in localized totals
over 3-6 hours of 2+ inches. Isolated instances of flash flooding
are possible.

Discussion...Strong low-level moisture transport continues into
portions of New England overnight, driven by an atmospheric river
that leads a maturing late-season low pressure system.
Precipitable water values across northern NH and south-central ME
are approaching a peak of 1.0-1.4 inches (near the max moving
average, per GYX sounding climatology) with 850 mb flow peaking at
an equally impressive 60-80 kts. Locally rainfall rates have
occasionally exceeded 0.5"/hr over the past few hours, but very
limited instability (100 J/kg of MU CAPE at most) has generally
prevented embedded showers that could approach 1"/hr. The
expectation is that rainfall rates locally as high as 0.5-0.7"/hr
look to continue over the next several hours, which may lead to
intermediate to longer term flash flooding issues (with 3-6 hour
totals locally eclipsing 2"). Higher totals look most probable
across upslope portions of the White Mountains of NH and ME,
though totals may locally exceed 2" along and near the coast of
Maine as well.=20

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8LdzXtizHQNvEoblhy58bVRO6mpzkLnVzgADMAls9zGsnXVezIxMyiZQVEUCtJgefE4g=
ofbo9ZDVDv0ItnOtTg6DCQs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45767016 45766938 45506908 45226855 44936798=20
            44476784 44136839 43686956 43157050 43577113=20
            43997174 44837149 45347087=20

=3D =3D =3D
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