Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 01 2023 00:43:12

ACUS01 KWNS 010043
SWODY1
SPC AC 010041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

....01Z Update...
North through northeast of the developing surface low migrating
north-northeast of the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, instability
above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer appears sufficient
to  maintain a continuing risk for weak thunderstorm activity across
the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity into southern New England.
This will be aided by lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, and may persist into the 04-06Z time frame before
waning as primary thunderstorm development becomes focused along the
eastward advancing cold front offshore.

Otherwise, forcing for ascent, associated with a weak mid-level
impulse migrating northward into and through the northern
Intermountain region, may be contributing to ongoing attempts at
sustained deepening convective development, where boundary-layer
destabilization has become most appreciable.  It is possible that
some of this activity could intensify further and become capable of
producing lightning, before diminishing as the boundary layer cools
after dark.

...Kerr.. 05/01/2023

$$

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