Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 30 2023 16:28:07

ACUS01 KWNS 301628
SWODY1
SPC AC 301626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHEAST SC ACROSS EASTERN NC TO SOUTHEAST VA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will
be possible this afternoon from northeast South Carolina to
southeast Virginia.

....Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a
pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today
across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.  An associated surface
cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the
Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing
cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast.  Prior to frontal
passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization
from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing
rain/clouds across eastern NC.

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures
warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will
result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition
this afternoon.  Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on
the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while
spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon.
 These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail,
given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight
hodographs.

...Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/30/2023

$$

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