Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0664
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 30 2023 11:17:37

ACUS11 KWNS 301117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301116=20
FLZ000-301245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Areas affected...Central/Southern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

Valid 301116Z - 301245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across central and southern
FL.

DISCUSSION...Cold front, associated with the shortwave trough moving
through the central Gulf Coast region, continues to shift quickly
eastward across the FL Peninsula. Northeast-to-southwest orientation
of the front has taken it through northern FL already, while leaving
most of central and southern FL still ahead of it. Thunderstorms
have developed mainly ahead of the front amid the broad large-scale
forcing for ascent and more mesoscale pre-frontal confluence. The
environment preceding the front remains unstable and strongly
sheared. Latest mesoanalysis suggests 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and 55-60 kt of effective bulk shear across the central and southern
peninsula. The strong deep-layer flow is confirmed by recent MLB VAD
profiles which sampled 55 kt at 1 km AGL and 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk
shear. Robust low-level shear persists as well, with the MLB VAD
sampling almost 500 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.=20

Given these environmental conditions, supercells remain possible, as
evidenced by the long-lived supercell currently moving across Glades
and Highlands Counties. Given the persistent strong low-level flow
persists, the potential for tornadoes and damaging gusts will
continue for the next few hours.

...Mosier.. 04/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!53NLdwpSdUG8IhpwnZqLpjTlLBbWuS4tgHcm8mZKFOGqGf0BVtn42lZW_LTB48KGBoklF84gQ=
rhc_cia77Kx5QUYgJY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27588227 28448199 29318134 28428061 26718004 25178030
            24558121 24558194 25618176 26398200 26938246 27588227=20


=3D =3D =3D
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