Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0661
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 22:20:33

ACUS11 KWNS 292220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292219=20
FLZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

Valid 292219Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will persist across the central Florida
Peninsula early this evening. A brief tornado or two, wind-damage
and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Melbourne,
Florida shows scattered thunderstorms ongoing from near Melbourne
extending northward about 75 statute miles. Additional storms have
developed to the south-southeast of Tampa Bay, with a few smaller
cells over the central Florida Peninsula. This activity is located
along the northern and western edge of a moderately unstable
airmass, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 70s F. The
storms are being supported by lift associated with the eastern edge
of a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. In addition, low-level convergence
is maximized across the central Florida Peninsula. This should
result in a gradual increase in storm coverage early this evening.
The latest WSR-88D VWP from Melbourne has 0-6 km shear near 40
knots, and a gradually veering profile with height with substantial
speed shear in the mid-levels. This should be sufficient for
isolated severe storms capable of wind damage and hail. Also,
significant tornado parameter between 1 and 2 on SPC mesoscale
analysis suggests that a brief tornado or two will be possible,
especially if a supercell can develop.

...Broyles.. 04/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9_qrNWfJbOvvwps5URMGbYS745B6EODX3QgVKl8FEEOFTtMx4JbqQePtXWEOjtv18Ot5qzjh7=
rcaYk9uek1w8wOX6hk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27508058 27128094 27038151 27138189 27418215 27908228
            28348228 28738216 29268187 29298136 28958099 28288068
            27508058=20


=3D =3D =3D
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