Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 20:50:24

AWUS01 KWNH 292050
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-300118-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Areas affected...in and near Southeast Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292048Z - 300118Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are beginning to train across Southeast
GA.  Cell training is possible over an area which has had above
normal rainfall this past week.  Hourly rain totals to 2" with
local amounts to 4" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have been growing in number/coverage
across Southeast GA as foretold by the 12z HREF probabilities of
0.5"+ in an hour.  Divergence aloft is being aided by an upper
level low moving along the LA/AR border and an incoming convective
MCV from the southwest.  The activity to along is near and
northwest of a ML CAPE pool of 1500+ J/kg within a subtle surface
convergence zone, which is being eroded from the southwest by a
large area of stratiform rain associated with a low offshore the
FL Panhandle.  Precipitable water values have risen into the
1.25-1.5" range per GPS data.  Effective bulk shear of ~30 kts is
attempting to organize the thunderstorms into a linear band
oriented along the axis of the mean 850-400 hPa wind.

The signal for heavy rainfall in the guidance in this region
continues until ~01z when instability erodes and/or the convection
propagates offshore.  With hourly rain totals to 2", and local
amounts to 4" possible, when combined with wetness over the past
week the region is slightly more susceptible to heavy rain issues,
as hinted at by the 3 hour flash flood guidance values.  Urban
areas would be most sensitive while coastal swamps would be less
sensitive, as usual.=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6TyY61_sH7aLBfr8RplWijH78ogCXnBU2-iwgsKyKjSTWFquC87AsLnAPhFlmgeU0SmN=
yf56tq_goWiZX1lYLWIQK5s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32578119 32238053 31938083 30898170 31028278=20
            31408344 31808309 32348204=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.