Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0659
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 18:19:01

ACUS11 KWNS 291818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291818=20
FLZ000-292015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Areas affected...Lake Okeechobee vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291818Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify and a few may become
supercells.  The magnitude and coverage of severe is uncertain.=20
Convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows developing
thunderstorms over the northern part of the Everglades north to west
of Lake Okeechobee.  The airmass is very moist with mid 70s
dewpoints and mid-upper 80s surface temperatures.  Modified RAP
forecast soundings show around 3500 J/kg MLCAPE over the southern
and central parts of the FL Peninsula.  As a mid-level low over the
Arklatex and associated trough continue east-southeast across the
northern Gulf Coast and western Gulf, low to mid-level flow is
forecast to gradually strengthen through the early evening.  The
kinematic and buoyancy profiles indicate a few of the stronger
updrafts will probably acquire at least some rotation (i.e.,
supercellular) and pose at least an isolated risk for large hail.=20
Isolated damaging gusts may also occur.  Given the moist low levels,
a tornado cannot be ruled out but would be strongly dependent on an
established supercell maximizing its ability to augment/enhance
low-level shear for low-level mesocyclones.

...Smith/Thompson.. 04/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!95kminAK_JRiWBUFLrep4sppf71GJf7-FW1o2f4VpPAnq1krv4Lcx5WznvlBHU-KN-PtGWY4X=
zdGH5B5xueNexP9cR4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27978129 26898140 26388120 26228092 26378057 27318019
            28078051 28128093 27978129=20


=3D =3D =3D
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