Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 17:42:23

AWUS01 KWNH 291742
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-292300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend...Far
Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291740Z - 292300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf
of Mexico will overspread portions of the FL Panhandle and Big
Bend region, and far southwest GA over the next few hours. A
localized threat for some flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective complex continues to
advance east-northeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico in
association with a compact mid-level shortwave trough and area of
low pressure. This energy will be crossing areas of the FL
Panhandle and Big Bend region over the next few hours and should
allow for heavy showers and thunderstorms to overspread the area.

Radar imagery and shows a somewhat broken, but relatively linear
axis of heavier convective rainfall rates west of Panama City
advancing inland within the broader convective mass and associated
heavy rain area offshore. The latest RAP 3-hourly instability
differentials support the idea of relatively strong convective
elements translating off to the northeast into far southwest GA
also over the next few hours.

Overall, the 12Z NAM-Conest seems to have a fairly decent handle
of the ongoing convection over the Gulf of Mexico (albeit perhaps
a little slow), but the NAM-Conest does support some 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates accompanying the stronger convection with
some resulting 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals inclusive of at least
some brief training cell potential as well going through the
afternoon. The latest radar and satellite trends tend to support
this.

The antecedent conditions across especially areas of the FL
Panhandle are on the moist side based off the latest NASA SPoRT
moisture data with also locally high streamflows noted per USGS
observations. Consequently, the additional rains this afternoon
may pose a localized concern for some runoff problems and flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5tvAeOzCtFlh_A7XjeOB-YXAvdyxrm5sZUqpBw496G8yJ9o7SfCGywKw0sB1qgxXL1Xv=
6l9MQN9IgAgL0T7EfwOmF8A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31258459 31228370 30848303 30268287 29688336=20
            29898414 29798466 29658492 29728555 29998583=20
            30298625 30708589 30988535=20

=3D =3D =3D
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