Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 17:31:30 ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, and also across parts of central and south Florida. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards, though isolated hail will also be possible. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic Ocean as a surface low deepens while traversing the Atlantic Seaboard. Before the surface cold front trailing the low moves offshore, adequate low-level moisture advection and veering/strengthening tropospheric winds ahead of the front will foster a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Carolina Piedmont and southern Mid Atlantic and central and southern portions of the FL Peninsula. ....Carolina Piedmont into the southern Mid Atlantic... A surface low is expected to be positioned roughly over NC at the start of the period, with southerly low-level flow advecting at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the Carolinas during the morning hours as an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak impinges on the region, contributing to long, slightly curved hodographs and well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger discrete/semi-discrete supercells or line segments that can materialize around the start of the period. Later in the afternoon, enough insolation and boundary-layer modification behind the first round of convection may support additional storm development ahead of the cold front. While a tornado cannot be ruled out with this second round of storms, damaging gusts may be a relatively greater concern as the northward departure of the surface low will result in straighter hodographs compared to earlier in the day. Some severe threat may continue to spread northward in tandem with the surface low into the Mid Atlantic. However, accompanying buoyancy should be scant and the severe risk is expected to be isolated, with a damaging gust or tornado possible. ....Central and southern FL Peninsula... The severe threat will be confined to roughly the 12-20Z period, before the trailing surface cold front shunts the better quality low-level moisture offshore. From morning to early-afternoon, 70+ F surface dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7 C/km tropospheric lapse rates will contribute to 1500 + J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, modestly curved hodographs (with over 50 kts of effective bulk shear and around 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH). As such, a mix of line segments and semi-discrete supercells may pose a damaging gust/tornado threat before the cold front moves offshore. ...Squitieri.. 04/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .