Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 16:27:00 ACUS01 KWNS 291626 SWODY1 SPC AC 291625 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS FL AND SOUTH GA... ....SUMMARY... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, large hail, and a coup[e of tornadoes, are possible across parts of Florida and southern Georgia this afternoon, and again overnight. ....FL area through tonight... A large cluster of thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico appears to be developing into an MCS, in advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over the northwest Gulf coast. The developing MCS is expected to progress east-northeastward over central/north FL later this afternoon/evening, along and south of a stalled front. Boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F and surface heating in cloud breaks will result in destabilization sufficient to maintain the MCS and an attendant threat for damaging winds late this afternoon. Aside from the MCS, cyclogenesis appears likely near the Southeast Atlantic coast along the stalled front by tonight, as the Gulf of Mexico shortwave trough begins to phase with a deep low over the Great Lakes. There will be some threat for additional storm development overnight in association with the primary Gulf of Mexico shortwave trough and cold front, in the wake of the afternoon MCS. Wind profiles will strengthen with time tonight with the approach of the shortwave trough and cyclogenesis. However, the main concern overnight will be any reductions in moisture/buoyancy by today's convection. Other storms may form this afternoon along the Atlantic coast sea breeze from southeast into east central FL. MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt (driven by relatively weak low-level flow and stronger flow aloft) will support the potential for organized/supercell storms with the potential to produce isolated large hail and damaging winds. ....Coastal Carolinas late this afternoon into tonight... The surface warm/moist sector will remain near the Atlantic coast this afternoon, and an isolated strong storm may form along the boundary this afternoon in southern NC. By tonight, there will be a gradual increase in vertical shear in response to cyclogenesis, as well as the possibility of a remnant MCV emerging from the Gulf of Mexico MCS. There will be a conditional threat for organized/supercell storms, though the details of thunderstorm coverage/evolution will depend on the future influence of the Gulf of Mexico convection, which is still uncertain this far northeast. ...Thompson/Smith.. 04/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .