Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 29 2023 00:38:22

ACUS01 KWNS 290038
SWODY1
SPC AC 290036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will overspread much of the remainder of the Texas
coastal plain this evening, accompanied by a continuing risk for
severe weather.

....01Z Update...
Cold surface ridging continues to nose southward to the lee of the
southern Rockies, into and through the Rio Grande Valley, with the
associated front rapidly advancing toward the Texas coastal plain.
Near and northeast of the San Antonio area, the front has tended to
undercut the stronger convection.  Despite increasingly modest to
weak low-level lapse rates toward coastal areas, and modest ambient
lower/mid-tropospheric flow, mixed-layer CAPE immediately ahead of
the convection and front may be sufficient to maintain convection
capable of posing a risk for locally severe wind gusts and perhaps
hail.

Closer to the Rio Grande Valley vicinity, lingering mid-level
inhibition may still be overcome by deep-layer forcing for ascent
later this evening.  As this occurs, steep mid-level lapse rates and
sizable CAPE will provide potential for a few strong storms posing a
risk for large hail and locally strong downbursts, given the
sufficiently strong deep-layer shear present across the region.

...Kerr.. 04/29/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.