Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0655
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 28 2023 22:54:22

ACUS11 KWNS 282254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282253=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Areas affected...Southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282253Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Georgia may
intensify and pose a severe hail and/or damaging wind risk. This
threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Lightning data and MRMS echo top trends suggest that
more persistent convection is becoming established within a subtle
low-level confluence zone across southern GA. This is after several
attempts at convective initiation earlier in the afternoon.
Cloud-top cooling noted in GOES IR imagery suggests this activity
will have longer longevity that previous attempts. Surface
temperatures/dewpoints in the 80s and mid 60s coupled with modest
lapse rates aloft is supporting MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg. However, VWP observations from KVAX show modest deep-layer
shear (roughly around 25-30 knots of 0-6 km BWD). While marginal,
this may support a few more organized cells capable of posing a
severe hail and damaging wind risk over the next few hours prior to
the onset of diurnal cooling. Given the weak forcing for ascent and
modest kinematic environment, storm coverage and intensity will
likely remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

...Moore/Grams.. 04/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4KAfwGt2jNLRQgz5ccWR5B22U0xtIW2rrkxX7ESfXtqRYoDqLU5glm_AUcUG9BwgxrxSFjFHu=
a2PHiBNOxa21M6ABV0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31448474 31548447 31758218 31798152 31738112 31438122
            31098139 30728148 30688171 30688258 30668377 30668419
            30788470 31008489 31308491 31448474=20


=3D =3D =3D
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