Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 28 2023 08:24:50

ACUS48 KWNS 280824
SWOD48
SPC AC 280823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears quite low
during the first part of next week, with dry and stable conditions
expected for most areas east of the Rockies in the wake of a
seasonably strong cold front. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday across parts of the interior
Northwest, in association with a deep mid/upper-level cyclone
forecast to be centered near somewhere near the Pacific Coast.

More substantial low-level moisture return appears possible
beginning on D6/Wednesday from Texas into parts of the High Plains,
as a surface ridge moves eastward from the central Plains into the
Southeast/Ohio Valley, and a surface cyclone gradually strengthens
in the lee of the central/northern Rockies. However, the highly
amplified mid/upper-level pattern will likely remain unfavorable for
organized severe thunderstorms, with stronger deep-layer flow/shear
expected to be displaced from any stronger destabilization.

Predictability regarding the surface and upper pattern decreases by
D7/Thursday into D8/Friday, but continued low-level moistening and
the potential for some stronger mid/upper-level flow to spread east
of the Rockies could support an increasing severe-thunderstorm
threat across parts of the central/southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley by the end of the week.

...Dean.. 04/28/2023

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