Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 28 2023 07:31:07 ACUS03 KWNS 280730 SWODY3 SPC AC 280729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across the eastern Carolinas into the Tidewater Region, and also across parts of Florida. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave will eject quickly through the base of a deepening longwave trough across the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A surface cyclone attendant to the shortwave will deepen as it moves from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic and eventually parts of New England. As this occurs, a cold front will sweep through much of the Southeast and the northern/central Gulf of Mexico. ....Eastern Carolinas into the Tidewater Region... Anticipated widespread convection across the Gulf Coast region into parts of the Gulf of Mexico on Days 1-2 (Friday/Saturday) results in considerable uncertainty regarding the severe threat downstream into D3/Sunday. However, there is some potential for remnant convection from late in the D2/Saturday period to impact parts of the coastal Carolinas on Sunday morning. Depending on the extent of inland destabilization, some threat for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two may accompany these early storms near the Atlantic Coast. By Sunday afternoon, the ejecting shortwave trough and surface low are forecast to move across the Carolinas toward the Mid Atlantic. Low-level moisture return may be hampered by antecedent convection, but at least weak destabilization in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer wind profiles will support a conditional risk of organized storms during the afternoon/evening from central/eastern NC into southeast VA. If deep convection can be sustained in this area, storms capable of locally damaging gusts and maybe a tornado will be possible. ....Central/south FL... Storms are likely to spread across parts of central/south FL in conjunction with the cold front. Timing of the frontal passage remains somewhat uncertain, but prefrontal moisture and instability will likely be sufficient to sustain some severe threat with frontal convection, even if this moves across the Peninsula relatively early in the day. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized cells/clusters with a threat of strong/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado. ...Dean.. 04/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .