Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 28 2023 06:01:17 ACUS02 KWNS 280601 SWODY2 SPC AC 280559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND NORTH FL INTO SOUTHWEST GA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night, with the greatest threat currently expected from the Florida Panhandle into north Florida and southwest Georgia. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats, with isolated hail also possible. ....Synopsis... A longwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central and eastern CONUS on Saturday. A positively tilted shortwave initially over the southern Plains will take on a neutral tilt as it moves quickly eastward through the base of the amplifying longwave trough. In advance of the ejecting shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to develop along a front draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico and eventually move northeastward into the FL Panhandle and southern GA. The location of the front and the intensity/track of the surface cyclone will be somewhat dependent on the evolution of convection across the Gulf of Mexico, which remains uncertain at this time. ....Central/eastern Gulf Coast into north FL/south GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning somewhere over the western/central Gulf of Mexico. Some heating and destabilization will be possible near the Gulf Coast into parts of north FL/south GA in advance of any MCS, and some threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado may evolve as storms move and/or develop inland, near/south of the effective warm front. In the wake of any diurnal MCS, the outflow-reinforced front will likely be suppressed southward by early evening, before potentially returning northward Saturday night, in response to the ejecting shortwave trough and developing surface cyclone. If rich low-level moisture can return inland Saturday night in conjunction with the surface low, then the threat for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will increase, with low-level and deep-layer shear profiles becoming favorable for supercells and organized clusters. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution early in the day and the northward extent of any threat late in the period. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the FL Panhandle/north FL and south GA, where the greatest aggregate threat from early and late convection is currently expected. Some adjustments will likely be needed based on shorter-term observational and guidance trends. ....East-central/northeast FL... Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected during the afternoon across parts of east-central/northeast Florida, in association with the sea breeze. Instability and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant threat of hail and locally strong/damaging gusts. ...Dean.. 04/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .