Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0642
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 22:46:13

ACUS11 KWNS 272246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272245=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-280045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Georgia...northern Florida into
the west central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

Valid 272245Z - 280045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.

SUMMARY...An extensive line of thunderstorms probably will continue
to slowly weaken while spreading inland across northern Florida,
adjacent southern Georgia, and coastal areas north of Tampa, through
8-10 PM EDT.  A new severe weather watch is not currently
anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...At least a couple of mesoscale convective vortices have
developed within the ongoing extensive convective system.  One
longer-lived vortex is now passing to the northeast of the
Tallahassee vicinity, and associated with convection that has
exhibited warming tops and diminishing lightning during the past
hour or so.  A secondary vortex offshore (to the south/southeast of
Apalachicola), is still associated with convection exhibiting colder
tops, modest lightning flash frequencies, and perhaps stronger rear
inflow based on more rapid acceleration of convection to its south
(up to 45-50 kt).  It appears that this convection may impact
coastal areas to the west of Ocala by 0030Z.

While the updraft inflow remains modestly strong into the
larger-scale convective system, relatively dry lower/mid-level
tropospheric air offshore of the Florida Gulf coast appears to be
resulting in rather modest CAPE.  So a gradual, general weakening
trend seems likely to be maintained with convection as it continues
to spread inland across northern Florida, and into coastal areas
north Tampa into this evening.  However, the risk for locally strong
embedded surface gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may be slowest
to diminish near the remnant MCVs.

...Kerr.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8VG2rkAEt84yQdtRSZEB4QFKuCUBye2kPUSowVGgk2KseZgWR_5v651qFZbGaAWRE11nUb49A=
ZDwm1yw6kT7KPz_P3Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31288289 31268203 29958212 28538275 27808423 27758552
            28528452 29488389 30988333 31288289=20


=3D =3D =3D
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