Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0641
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 20:51:13

ACUS11 KWNS 272051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272050=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...east-central Arkansas...far
southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272050Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may develop near the shortwave trough in
Arkansas and ahead of the cold front in Mississippi. Large hail and
isolated damaging winds are the primary threats. A watch may be
needed should convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis shows increasing boundary-layer
destabilization from east-central Arkansas into northern
Mississippi. As clouds have dissipated through the day, low-levels
have recovered to some degree. Visible satellite indicates
increasing cumulus across central Mississippi. Closer to the
upper-level trough in Arkansas, additional convection has also
recently developed. Shear should increase as the upper trough moves
east. Effective shear of 45-60 kts will favor organized storms. Long
hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures (around -14 to -17 C)
suggest large hail potential. Damaging wind gusts may also occur,
but low-level lapse rates should keep that threat more isolated. The
highest confidence in storm development/persistence will be near the
shortwave trough. It is less certain how many storms will form in
central/northern Mississippi, but those storms would have more
potential for large hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible
watch.

...Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4QpoEAwlOk19hayBNCSQPguThdcEq_Oy2ZCLcqZShnlHWcmPc7hCbCm53jV2iTilbva0yap2r=
BPo-F7caC_6BlgdVmc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34789268 35169140 35279040 34968938 34368816 33508806
            33108832 33018942 33629096 33979206 34109252 34789268=20


=3D =3D =3D
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