Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0640
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 20:35:41

ACUS11 KWNS 272035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272034=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-272200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern FL Panhandle...far southwest GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

Valid 272034Z - 272200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will remain
possible through 5-6pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-northeast to south-southwest
oriented band of a thunderstorms move east across the northeast Gulf
of Mexico and central portions of the FL Panhandle late this
afternoon.  Surface streamline analysis indicates weak easterly flow
across the central portion of the FL Panhandle during the past
couple of hours.  Surface conditions ahead of the band of storms
have temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the
lower 70s.  A long-lived supercell has continued east-northeast
across the Panhandle with all hazards being exhibited via radar
during the past couple of hours.  The band of storms and associated
convection on its leading edge is beginning to encroach on the
supercell with the potential for a tornado becoming more uncertain
with time.  Nonetheless, a pronounced surge in the line supported by
strong deep-layer shear (effective shear 60 kt) will favor swaths of
damaging gusts as a weak mesolow begins to develop centered with
thunderstorms near Washington/Calhoun counties.  Complex storm-scale
interactions may continue to occur with both damaging gusts and
perhaps a brief mesovortex tornado possible as as the band moves
east during the next 1-2 hours.

...Smith.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7wQ_pwwbBwcvDmY8WeJ5uFtdmk0uxQceXeRlfhvkHRi6QiuFfVn8N3RjFh3Jc7ctvILcgc5ud=
Eyc6ZZUt7rEnNHlYME$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30598538 30928419 30858382 30648374 30148381 29578491
            29718536 30058561 30598538=20


=3D =3D =3D
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