Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 20:00:12 ACUS01 KWNS 272000 SWODY1 SPC AC 271958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible today over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as much of central and northern Florida. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ....20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been cleared from deep-south TX since the cold front has pushed through the area, reducing convective potential. Severe probabilities have also been trimmed across portions of the Gulf Coast where an MCS have moved through and overturned/stabilized the airmass enough to reduce the severe threat. Otherwise, severe potential remains with the ongoing MCS moving across the central FL Panhandle, and with storms that can form on a sea-breeze boundary across northeast parts of the FL Peninsula. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible. Severe potential remains with storms that can develop closer to the surface low over the Lower MS Valley, with damaging gusts and large hail the main threats. Lastly, a severe gust or two may accompany low-topped convection behind the cold front across the central Rockies/central High Plains, before nocturnal cooling reduces the steep low-level lapse rates and associated severe gust potential. ...Squitieri.. 04/27/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023/ ....MS/AL/FL/GA... a large area of thunderstorms has been tracking eastward across the central Gulf Coast region this morning. The overall severe threat has diminished through the morning, but may reinvigorate this afternoon with slow daytime heating and moisture advection as storms will spread into southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle (WW 174). Forecast soundings and local VAD profiles show sufficient deep-layer shear for a few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon. ....SE GA/FL... Strong daytime heating is occurring from southeast GA into the eastern FL Peninsula, where dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon over the central Peninsula, as well as farther north with the approach of the convection over AL and the Panhandle. The environment in this area will be somewhat similar to yesterday, with a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should track offshore by mid-evening, ending the severe threat. ....AR/MS/TN/AL... Skies are beginning to slowly clear over parts of AR, beneath a cold upper low. This trend will continue through the afternoon, leading to a region of moderate CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. Most CAM solutions agree on the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms from central AR eastward into west TN and northern MS. This region will be in the exit region of a mid-level jet max, and in an area of sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts. The strongest cells will be capable of large hail for few hours this afternoon and evening. ....South TX... A cold front is sagging southward across Deep South TX today. Low-level winds ahead of the front have shifted to northerly, reducing frontal convergence and likely limiting the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. Nevertheless, an isolated storm or two remains possible. Any storms that form would be in a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient flow aloft to promote supercell structures. Large to very large hail would be possible. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .