Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0639
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 18:20:10

ACUS11 KWNS 271820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271819=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...southeast GA...north FL...eastern portion of the FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271819Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely begin to develop over southeast
GA/north FL by 3pm EDT.  Additional storms are expected to develop
farther south near I-95.  Large hail and damaging gusts are the
primary threats with the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field over parts of north FL east of the Big Bend.  Surface
temperatures have warmed into the 80s with mid 60s to near 70 deg F
dewpoints.  Strong westerly flow in the 6-8 km layer (50-65 kt) is
currently being sampled by the KJAX and KVAX VADs.  Slightly weaker
flow is is projected by RAP forecast soundings near the Space Coast
and south near Lake Okeechobee.  With 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and wind
profiles supporting storm organization, expecting a few supercells
to eventually develop.  Large hail and damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazards before this activity gradually weakens during
the evening.

...Smith/Hart.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7f4U0ERBAepC0Nwubdyx0NElKPClGXZnf8zuNViusLsqsFMLrdopAjnFxUXUVzCIRQmSpOWs4=
zrNry95-7R8IXXQyI0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   27768143 27018062 27008022 27158004 30718146 31488126
            32178161 32308199 32138282 31698307 29938273 29878272
            28898171 27768143=20


=3D =3D =3D
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