Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0638
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 17:57:12

ACUS11 KWNS 271757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271756=20
FLZ000-272000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...central portion of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

Valid 271756Z - 272000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail (1-3 inches in
diameter) and damaging gusts will likely accompany a supercell as it
moves east-northeast across the central part of the FL Panhandle
through 3-4pm EDT.  A brief tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived discrete supercell has recently moved
ashore into the greater Panama City, FL vicinity from the shelf
waters in a favorable environment for organized storms.  The KEVX
VAD data shows a favorable hodograph for storm-scale rotation but
KTLH 88D VAD data is noticeably weaker in 2-4 km flow (10 kt
weaker).  Nonetheless, moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
with speed shear in the mid to upper levels, are combining to
support an environment favorable for large to very large hail.=20
Damaging gusts may also occur with with the precip-laden RFD as the
storm moves east-northeast over the next several hours.

...Smith.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_MXtZ-lwTOjF8JDLcfB8Dk95ubSSAlbZ4MCuk0-lmoOF7OQOaMJrH2HpDq911Kgp9bKXS5Ld9=
IkStHegPROfS3756tM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30398579 30628471 30548450 30358458 30178577 30198593
            30398579=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.