Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 16:45:24 AWUS01 KWNH 271645 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-272245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1244 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southeastern AL...Southwestern GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271645Z - 272245Z SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm complex with widespread moderate to locally intense rainfall rates to progress further eastward this afternoon and lead to isolated flooding concerns across the Florida Panhandle and nearby sections of southeast AL and southwest GA. DISCUSSION...A warm front slowly lifting northward and currently located along the northern FL border continues to be the focus for widespread convection as upstream height falls associated with an upper-level trough/mid-level closed low over the Southern Plains slides the heavy rain activity eastward. Radar and satellite trends show maintaining embedded supercells within the larger thunderstorm complex and cooling cloud tops along storms that are located tightly along the frontal boundary bisecting the region. Mesoanalysis highlights plentiful moisture and instability remaining in place, with PWs up to 1.6-1.7" and MUCAPE near and exceeding 2000 J/kg across portions of coastal and the eastern FL Panhandle. 850 mb inflow from the Gulf of Mexico is also sufficient, with 20-30 kts of SSW flow. The ongoing embedded supercells and future cells could contain intense rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr, while also exhibiting some training with moderate rainfall rates up to 1"/hr within the larger rain shield. This better training potential is expected to exist near and just to the south of the lifting warm front, where better surface convergence and instability exists. Additionally, thunderstorm activity associated with a bowing segment traversing the northern Gulf of Mexico could overlap with coastal regions along the FL Panhandle. HREF neighborhood probabilities are between 50-70% for 3" of rain in 3 hours across the western FL Panhandle through 21z, with HRRR 3-hourly totals as high as 6". This impacted region has been relatively dry as of late and includes FFGs of 3-4"/hr, which should lead to only isolated chances for flash flooding, where training can set up and especially over urban and low-lying regions. This will include the I-10 corridor across the FL Panhandle. Snell ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Hx6p-FPd_tMDEB-6Cwp158EX86pWhyOQ_BRt3X20lxdY_jnO_vCm8VjoNkhAO0e2_6B= NzIRMpn_p0RaX_0Cd9Jc0Nw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31618391 31128331 30098370 29558486 29568605=20 30008717 30678743 31248694 31588543=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .