Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0635
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 14:09:41

ACUS11 KWNS 271409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271409=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-271615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...far southeast AL...southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 271409Z - 271615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for at least isolated severe weather will likely
develop from west to east across the FL Panhandle during the late
morning into the afternoon.  A Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows widespread mid- to
high-level cloud cover across the northeast Gulf Coast this morning.
 A cluster of thunderstorms with embedded supercells have continued
east across southwest AL (recently weakened) and the shelf waters
south of Mobile Bay.  Temperatures will only slowly rise this
morning over the FL Panhandle because of thick cloud cover limiting
destabilization.  Moderate buoyancy (1900 J/kg MLCAPE) was noted
over the central Gulf Coast via the 12 UTC Slidell, LA raob, whereas
only weak buoyancy (600 J/kg MLCAPE) was observed at Tallahassee, FL
on the 12 UTC raob.  Despite the muted heating expected through
early afternoon (temperatures only warming into the mid 70s), a
slight increase in low-level moisture will probably occur.  Strong
deep-layer shear will promote storm organization.  It seems
plausible at least a few stronger updrafts will eventually move east
of severe thunderstorm watch #173 and an attendant threat for severe
will move into the AL/GA/FL Panhandle vicinity.

...Smith/Hart.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5YOWJS1EpY1w7MjvloXefa5-wtbjP1tVerew_sEZBV57sj6O19FgKeHhD9UyQEJh2TGr71WiY=
PKlg-IkwymhlDQDkZk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30288641 30968625 31318586 31248352 30948313 30278316
            29688354 29528522 30288641=20


=3D =3D =3D
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