Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 10:05:37

ACUS11 KWNS 271005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271004=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...southeast MS into southwest AL and the western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271004Z - 271200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a
large-hail risk early this morning. Convective trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed early this morning
in the vicinity of a warm front draped across far sotuhern MS into
coastal AL and the FL Panhandle. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE values up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40
kt will aid in updraft organization and storm maintenance. Storm
motion may keep convection to the cool side of the boundary, at
least in the short term. However, the surface boundary should drift
north with time through early morning. While surface to 3km flow is
rather weak, veering with height is contributing to modest but
favorably curved low-level hodographs and effective SRH values near
150-200 m2/s2 are noted within the frontal zone. Given little
inhibition across the downstream environment, some potential for
storm intensification is possible, and a strong gust or tornado can
not be ruled out with the supercell moving into Stone County MS as
it continues to track east. Otherwise, large hail will be the
primary hazard.

The main uncertainty at this time as related to watch issuance is
storm coverage. A couple of cells are ongoing over Chandeleur Sound
south of the MS coast. This activity may eventually move into far
southeast MS/southwest AL. If coverage of storms increases
sufficiently, a watch may be needed for portions of the MCD area.

...Leitman/Edwards.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zM8TX7uXRJmizMdMShxQIu7cZ3yplnlP9UvGk8qKqBPdMzhTh2wmmzWnQy2dCLhEMV70b32k=
1QNr1I0RgSNB31I4IA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31438936 31758807 31758720 31268664 30778669 30248708
            29918863 30348977 30948994 31248986 31438936=20


=3D =3D =3D
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