Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 08:50:39

ACUS48 KWNS 270850
SWOD48
SPC AC 270849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to quickly move
eastward across the Southeastern States, moving offshore prior to
00Z. Meanwhile, a larger-scale upper trough is forecast over the
upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over the
Plains.

Models indicate a short time window of warm sector over land will be
possible, from FL to the Carolinas Sunday/D4 morning. Given the
depicted strength of the wave, storms would likely be ongoing along
a cold front prior to moving offshore. Even so, it appears that
substantial precipitation and clouds could hamper destabilization,
in addition to timing issues with the speed of the trough.

From Monday/D5 through the end of the outlook period, little if any
severe risk over the CONUS is anticipated, due to the stabilizing
effects of a deep upper trough over East. Minimal general
thunderstorm activity may occur over the southern High Plains as
diurnal heating interacts with meager moisture return.

...Jewell.. 04/27/2023

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