Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 07:22:08

ACUS03 KWNS 270722
SWODY3
SPC AC 270720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential may develop late Saturday into Sunday morning
over parts of the central and eastern Gulf Coast states.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A deep but positively tilted upper trough will move east/southeast
across TX, and toward the lower MS Valley Saturday afternoon, with
500 mb winds increasing to over 70-80 kt. This wave is forecast to
tilt neutrally and move due east late in the period, as it begins to
phase with a developing trough over the upper Great Lakes.

At the surface, a low will be over the northwest Gulf of Mexico
Saturday morning, with an associated large area of convection
possible. Weak pressure falls are expected inland over LA and MS
during the day, with continued widespread storms into the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

A boundary extending east from the initial low will eventually
become a warm front over the northern/northeastern Gulf Coast
states, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints into southern AL, GA, and
FL. This warm advection will be aided by strengthening 850 mb flow
to 50 kt. The aforementioned storm activity over the water makes
this forecast one of low predictability, despite potential for
inland destabilization late. However, given ample shear and ascent
with this system, low severe probabilities are warranted, with
further adjustments likely in upcoming outlooks.

...Jewell.. 04/27/2023

$$

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