Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0633
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 07:11:09

ACUS11 KWNS 270711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270710=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...central/southern LA into far southwest MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...

Valid 270710Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts may persist across parts of
central/southern Louisiana the next couple of hours. Convection may
develop east into parts of southeast Louisiana/southwest Mississippi
by early morning, but severe potential is expected to remain low.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow continues to track east across
southwest into south-central Louisiana at around 35-40 kt. This
track will move convection out of WW 172 by around 830z. While this
system has maintained a mature reflectivity depiction, velocity
signatures have been modest. Measured gusts have generally been less
than 40 kt across far southeast TX into southwest LA. Weak to
moderate boundary-layer inhibition, and a modest cold pool, are
likely limiting stronger gust potential. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg and strong effective shear will likely support continued
organization in the short term. However, overall severe potential is
expected to be limited, though a few stronger gusts will remain
possible across WW 172. If convection remains organized and
continues to develop east along the instability gradient, some gusts
to around 40 kt may be possible to the east of the current severe
thunderstorms watch across southeast LA/southwest MS. However, a
downstream watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman.. 04/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4_IWWWjeE3Zh_vtFRhSD0OGrVbASEVe4FCIP82WDiIDzjAHNnFVjGf7AEirhhzRjtN_CQjfin=
eGrcv8qJq8-ay_WJY4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31369313 31129319 30609340 30319367 30129370 30029362
            30029342 30159140 30329075 30819051 31099058 31469083
            31499121 31419249 31369313=20


=3D =3D =3D
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