Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 27 2023 01:01:05 ACUS01 KWNS 270101 SWODY1 SPC AC 270059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms will spread across central and southeast Texas this evening. Hazards include the possibility for very large hail, a few tornadoes and severe gusts. Strong/severe thunderstorms will linger across the Florida Peninsula for the next few hours. ....01z Update... Center of mid-level circulation is shifting east-southeast across northern NM early this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into central OK by 27/12z as strongest 500mb flow translates across central TX into LA. While low-level surface low is fairly nondescript, high-level flow is quite diffluent across the southern Plains ahead of this feature. As a result, clusters of severe thunderstorms/supercells have evolved over central TX into northern LA. This activity is propagating slowly east-southeast and should continue severe as a reservoir of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE currently resides over much of the warm sector over TX just south of this convection. Radar data continues to exhibit strong hail signatures with longer-lived supercells and very large hail may be noted with the strongest storms, especially over central TX. Tornado threat also continues along with locally severe wind gusts. Diurnally driven convection continues across the interior FL Peninsula early this evening. 00z sounding from MFL continues to exhibit substantial MLCAPE (2500 J/kg) with 40kt surface-6km bulk shear. Radar data continues to suggest hail is occurring with some of this activity, especially with the supercell over Polk County. Given the steep lapse rates and cool mid-level temperatures, severe threat may linger for a few hours as convection propagates slowly southeast. ...Darrow.. 04/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .