Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0630
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 23:40:34

ACUS11 KWNS 262340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262340=20
TXZ000-270145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 169...

Valid 262340Z - 270145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 169 continues.

SUMMARY...Large, damaging hail, with some potential for tornadoes,
will continue with a supercell or two east-southeast of Waco through
8-9 PM CDT, while the risk for damaging winds perhaps becomes more
prominent with storms now approaching Waco from the west.

DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in vigorous convective development
continues northwest of Waco, toward the Brownwood area, increasingly
above a southward advancing cold front, with convection also
increasing ahead of this activity, above outflow generated by a
sustained discrete supercell now propagating east of Waco.  The
discrete supercell is still being supported by a focused area of
enhanced low-level warm advection along a warm frontal zone, and may
be maintained with an additional supercell or two possible south
through southeast of the Corsicana vicinity through 01-02Z.

Otherwise, stronger convective development to the west will probably
continue to consolidate and organize into early evening, aided by
moderate east-southeasterly inflow characterized by large CAPE, in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  The large, damaging hail
threat may begin to subside, but the risk for strong surface gusts
seems likely to increase.

...Kerr.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8skdCD2CgNq3fv9Ea_3BiODFiwl1MgwDrsBvEvZfubkfWVDjMBucuj7X3k8szZRfvyB_oQWnp=
aENWlXCh8fegx4LiAk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32059749 32129705 31539583 31049617 31239714 31399810
            31729768 32059749=20


=3D =3D =3D
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