Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 22:47:11 AWUS01 KWNH 262247 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-270445- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0209 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 646 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...East-Central TX...Extreme Western LA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 262245Z - 270445Z Summary...Clusters of supercellular convection continues to mature this afternoon across portions of East-Central TX. Areal rainfall totals of 2-4" into tonight could support instances of isolated-scattered flash flooding atop increasingly saturated soils. Discussion...Visible satellite and regional radar mosaic depict intensifying supercells along and east of a triple-point, analyzed just east of DYS at 21z. Further east, elevated supercells continued to track east into LA as a surface warm front lifts north. Elevated, localized FLASH responses on the order of 200-400 cfs/smi were noted from this activity where there were brief periods of training and high rainfall rates. The more recent activity continued to intensify within an area of strong height falls and upper-diffluence as a compact closed low and jet streak migrate into the Southern Plains. Overall, the environment continues to become increasingly favorable for intense and organized convection with mesoanalysis estimates showing an additional 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE and 10-15 kts effective bulk shear across Eastern TX and LA over the last several hours. Going into tonight, the expectation is for an uptick in low-level inflow (20-25 kts within the 925-850 mb layer) to interact with the surface warm front and outflows, and support upscale growth from initially discrete modes. While the CAMs have struggled with under-initializing convective coverage, and latitudinal placement of convection, there is a general idea for 2-4 inches of rainfall across East TX into Western LA through 5z, which is corroborated by recent runs of the experimental WoFs. In all, these rainfall totals could lead to isolated-scattered instances of flash flooding as soils are increasingly saturated in light of earlier rainfall. In fact, the most recent NASA SPoRT imagery shows 0-40 cm soil moisture anomalies in the 95th-98th percentile across East TX into far Western LA. Earlier activity produced 2-4" of rainfall over the last 24 hours roughly from a DFW to SHV line, which would be especially sensitive to any additional rainfall tonight. Asherman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7d7bYiQ6y2PTcDAsgmKNGxG8soZ98M1p5JAscIGi2rKJCkilhC74w-WAfYjkldEOlJwt= BapUOUaaAzSlURiT3-e3uQU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33099519 32689384 31659379 30889442 30249573=20 30099723 30579872 31549907 32579857 33089700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .