Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0627
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 22:01:32

ACUS11 KWNS 262201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262201=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of east Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262201Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An elevated cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk
for damaging winds and hail across portions of eastern TX and
western LA this evening. Trends are being monitored for a possible
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 2155 UTC regional radar imagery showed an
elevated cluster of thunderstorms, including a well-developed
supercell over Rusk county TX. Located along and to the north of a
composite outflow/effective warm front, a strengthening trend has
been noted with storms as they have shifted east over the last 30-60
min. SPC mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE resides along
and north of the effective boundary, supporting the potential for
strong updraft maintenance. KSHV VWP also shows 50 kt of effective
shear which should continue to support storm organization and the
potential for elevated supercells. Given the favorable environment
downstream and recent reports of damaging gusts and large hail
confidence has increased that a severe risk may evolve downstream
across portions of far eastern TX and western LA along and to the
north of the effective front.

Farther to the southwest across southeastern TX, additional warm
sector storms were noted developing north of the Houston area. With
weaker forcing for ascent, storms development and coverage is less
certain. However, much larger buoyancy (~3000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing
to low 70s F dewpoints would support a similar risk for damaging
winds and large hail with any supercells able to evolve. A weather
watch is being considered for portions of eastern TX and western LA

...Lyons/Grams.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!78ahmsSCxoGmKegf-6lGyQBHpibgMt93mfZGqQjkJw9TUhogHEI3X_EaxiIbc5CJ2UGemBx5U=
98wLlVSAH8nqeGJBoo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32649482 32539406 32369345 32129297 31889286 31519299
            31049353 30729395 30549438 30439478 30409525 30509549
            30689568 31029560 32119524 32649482=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.