Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0626
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 21:49:33

ACUS11 KWNS 262149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262148=20
TXZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 169...

Valid 262148Z - 262345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 169 continues.

SUMMARY...An upscale growing, organizing cluster of storms seems
increasingly probable near the Temple/Waco vicinities by 7-8 PM CDT.
Until then though, a more discrete supercell storm or two will pose
a risk for sizable, damaging hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes
near and southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

DISCUSSION...A focused area of low-level convergence and warm
advection near the intersection of the dryline and warm front has
become the focus for intense convective development.  This includes
one notable supercell to the west of Stephenville, which appears
likely to be maintained by moderately strong east-southeasterly
inflow of seasonably moist air, within a narrow corridor along the
warm front.  Based on latest objective analysis, this potential
inflow air becomes characterized by increasingly large CAPE with
east-southeastward extent along the front, near/just southwest of
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, toward the Temple/Waco vicinities.

Models also suggest that forcing for ascent and deep-layer shear are
being enhanced by a slowly propagating westerly mid-level jet streak
(50+ kt around 500 mb).  Although low-level flow and shear are
relatively modest, in addition to a continuing risk for rather large
hail, the environment along the warm front will probably be
conducive to a risk for tornadoes, particularly as long as the main
ongoing storm remains discrete.  This may remain the case another
hour or two, but an upscale growing cluster posing increasing
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts appears increasing
probable toward 00-01Z.

...Kerr.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_a5ln2WM_dX9mxUH-wx72gszTZcgjZzAikWBCTkjPOQmn5kdBpP4yemBacLciEjc-Ge8WxDqc=
lM3gp1JPL-bhI4AGag$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32389876 32509816 32089729 31399798 31799911 32249897
            32389876=20


=3D =3D =3D
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