Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0623
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 18:21:00

ACUS11 KWNS 261820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261820=20
TXZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 261820Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is forecast over central TX by mid
afternoon coincident with the leading edge of ascent/cirrus nosing
into the Big Country.  Additional storms may develop near the
outflow/warm front intersection.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field south of an outflow boundary and east of a dryline.  Surface
temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s deg F with dewpoints in
the mid 50s near San Angelo and upper 60s near the warm front.=20
Forecast soundings show minimal convective inhibition remaining
across central TX as the boundary layer continues to
warm/destabilize.  Water-vapor imagery shows the leading edge of
cirrus and implied ascent spreading quickly east across the Permian
Basin and into the Big Country.  As a result, convective initiation
is expected in the next hour or so near Abilene.  Once the remaining
cap is breached, expecting explosive updraft growth with a hail risk
quickly developing.  Effective shear 40-50 kt and MLCAPE in excess
of 3000 J/kg will rapidly promote supercell development.  Large to
giant hail (diameters 1 to 3+ inches) is expected.  A tornado risk
will likely focus near the warm front where relatively backed
low-level flow augmenting hodograph size, and surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads are less than 20 deg will reside.  A
strong tornado may occur if an established supercell(s) can interact
favorably with the warm frontal zone.

...Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87Fa01chU0dVaDchAmetOHA6idgf_rWERZBuwYc5k-6k5UVgSC-Q1DNdW8ucL5cyESmSqooEQ=
V3MxBiCBUrk92MJ5jg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31729631 32399781 32499846 32429990 32280026 31910042
            31530040 31120010 30359723 30409669 30819632 31259617
            31729631=20


=3D =3D =3D
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