Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 17:15:00

ACUS11 KWNS 261714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261714=20
FLZ000-261915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261714Z - 261915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large to very large (2-3 in.) hail and
damaging winds will exist this afternoon. A watch will likely be
needed within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus development/deepening is occurring along the
Atlantic sea breeze front in east-central Florida. Initial attempts
at storm development have not become sustained. Without much in the
way upper-level support, it may take another 2 or so hours of
heating before storms are able to mature. The 15Z Cape Kennedy
sounding showed mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. With
effective shear of 40-50 knots across the Peninsula, supercells are
the expected storm mode this afternoon and evening. Observational
trends support several model solutions of storms developing first
near the eastern coast before developing later in western/central
portions of the Peninsula. The improved shear and colder
temperatures aloft  as compared to the last two days will support a
threat for potentially very large (2-3 in.) hail as well as
strong/damaging downburst winds. A watch for much of the Peninsula
is likely.

...Wendt/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5dfCB5BQg8k3GAQTTEy5mifwur8lL6FTDClDVL_tz_4TnR46TveP3Oy3OM77Tm33fIq7piiRn=
V7H5wTJuiK3TZao_l0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27928205 29438256 29918228 29658126 28658064 27858033
            27378011 26818011 26098026 25688041 25738070 26618158
            27928205=20


=3D =3D =3D
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