Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 09:53:02 AWUS01 KWNH 260952 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-261550- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0207 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 552 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...northwest/northern TX into southwest OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260950Z - 261550Z Summary...A localized risk of flash flooding will set up over portions of northwestern TX and southwestern OK through 16Z. Short term periods of training will have the potential to contain rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr along with 3-4 inches in a 2-3 hour period of time. Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery over the past 1-2 hours has shown an increase in organization tied to a convective cluster moving through the eastern TX Panhandle. Thunderstorms were elevated, located north of a quasi-stationary front that extend ESE from a surface low near LBB at 09Z. 850 mb winds over the Permian Basin were southerly at 40-50 kt via area VAD wind plots, with about 0.9 inch PWAT values over the eastern Panhandle, but PWATs increased close to to 1.3 inches near the DFW Metroplex (GPS observations). Water vapor imagery showed a well-defined closed low over the CO/NM border, advancing eastward into the southern High Plains with increasing upper level diffluence overspreading the upper Red River Valley. Thunderstorms are likely to continue to expand in coverage and strengthen as they move east into a more favorable moisture/instability axis (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE). In addition, a 70-90 kt jet streak between 250-300 mb, just south of the closed upper low, was forecast by the RAP to translate eastward, increasing left-exit divergence over northwestern/northern TX into southwestern OK...likely to enhance lift across the region. The complex of thunderstorms should continue to advance east with time, but concerns for redevelopment of storms along the southwestern flank increase concerns for localized flash flooding at the nose of the strongest low level axis of moisture transport, forecast to point into southwestern OK over the next few hours while slowly advancing to the east. Short term training should likely support rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr but perhaps 2-3 in/hr locally if training sets up in an ideal manner, with potential for 3-4 inches in a 2-3 hour period. While the area has been very dry over the past few weeks, 1-2 inches of rain from Tuesday evening fell over parts of the region which could leave these locations more susceptible to runoff from additional heavy rain, through 16Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ob0VfaBhQZ0UbS1S_J5SewNk-jDXu816qxBtuMvD55q5Op6-Si1O-2bbyri5iIIyxaO= GRmDkQbhO50qeXHuV5PS0ak$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35109904 34829768 34529682 33859647 33109698=20 32909919 33390101 34150139 35020076=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .