Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 08:20:29

ACUS48 KWNS 260820
SWOD48
SPC AC 260818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeastward across TX, although model spread begins to grow. This
wave will be located roughly over eastern TX or LA by 12Z Sunday/D5,
and will accelerate eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and
southeastern states through 12Z Monday/D6.

Areas of thunderstorms may remain over Deep South TX Saturday/D4
morning, but this threat is expected to end quickly with the passage
of a cold front. Then, as low pressure forms over the western Gulf
of Mexico, an elongated front near the northern Gulf Coast may lift
north into Sunday/D5, with upper 60s F dewpoints perhaps affecting
coastal counties. The overarching theme with the model ensembles is
that significant amounts of rain and thunderstorms will occur over
the northern Gulf of Mexico, likely hampering destabilization
inland. Perhaps from late Sunday/D5 into Monday/D6, storms over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico can affect the FL Peninsula, but
predictability is low. Otherwise, an expansive area of cyclonic flow
aloft is forecast to develop over the eastern CONUS, resulting in
stable conditions with high pressure.

...Jewell.. 04/26/2023

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