Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 26 2023 06:25:28 ACUS01 KWNS 260625 SWODY1 SPC AC 260623 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR ERRORS IN GRAPHIC AND GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected over much of north-central Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing very large hail and damaging winds may also occur in the Florida Peninsula. ....Synopsis... A closed mid-level low, seen on water-vapor imagery this morning across southwest Colorado will shift southeast through the day today. A 50 knot mid-level jet west of this low will round the base of the trough during the morning hours and emerge over the southern Plains this afternoon, as the initially positively tilted wave becomes more neutrally tilted. A complicated surface pattern will be in place this afternoon. A weak surface low seen in surface observations near the TX/NM border this morning, will slowly drift east through the day. Most guidance shows the surface low bifurcate as the primary surface low moves south toward Mexico and a small portion travels east along the warm front during the evening. This warm front is expected to be somewhere near the Red River this afternoon/evening with a sharpening dryline extending south across central Texas. ....Central Texas and Vicinity... A forward-propagating MCS is expected to develop in the Texas Panhandle early this morning and move east-southeast through the morning hours. South of this MCS, significant surface heating is expected, with very strong instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) developing by mid afternoon. Broad ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, combined with this surface heating, should result in minimal inhibition by 19-20Z. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline around this time, and should quickly evolve into supercells given around 45 to 50 knots of effective shear. Weak low-level shear, very strong instability, and persistent increasing westerly flow between the LCL and EL will all support very large to potentially giant hail, especially during the afternoon period. During the afternoon, the tornado threat will primarily be focused near the warm front or potentially a remnant MCS outflow boundary from the previous night's convection where greater low-level vorticity should be present. However, during the evening period, especially 23-02Z, the low-level jet will strengthen and hodographs will elongate. The tornado threat should increase significantly during this period, with the potential for a strong tornado or two. During this same period, significant upscale growth is expected with one or more clusters developing and likely becoming a forward-propagating MCS into east-central Texas. During the transition from intense supercells to forward-propagating linear segments, a significant (65+ knot) wind threat may materialize. ....Florida... An EML off the Mexican Plateau, observed on the 12Z BRO and CRP RAOBs has traversed the Gulf of Mexico with the early evidence of its arrival at the 00Z TBW RAOB. These steep lapse rates will set the stage for a potentially significant severe-weather setup across Florida today. The 00Z TBW RAOB shows a 500mb temperature of -11.5C which is expected to cool to -15C by 12Z and to -13C at MFL. These anomalously cool temperatures aloft will aid in significant destabilization with MLCAPE forecast 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late morning. This buoyancy, combined with 40 to 50 knots of effective shear, will support splitting supercells capable or large to potentially very large hail during the afternoon to early evening hours. ...Bentley.. 04/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .